A tell tale sign

I opened my e-mail today and found a message from the Huckabee campaign.  The friendly folks at his campaign take time out of their busy schedule each day to let me (and hundreds of others) know where the governor will be the following day.  The contents of today's e-mail was telling.

The governor makes an early campaign stop at a polling place at 7:30 to kick off his day, followed by a second visit to a polling place again at 8:30.  Both of these visits are in Tampa, Florida.

But by 12:00 tomorrow Mr. Huckabee will be in Jefferson City, Missouri for a press conference announcing new endorsements.

He'll be back in Florida for the primary results, right?  No.  And for good reason: he's currently polling in forth in the Sunshine state.

2008 has been an interesting year for primary politics.  It is, apparently, acceptable for candidates who are clearly not going to be successful in a state to just skip it altogether.  That would explain why Rudy Giuliani skipped Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina.  That is also why Mitt Romney skipped town on South Carolina, John McCain put all of his eggs into New Hampshire's basket and why Fred Thompson concentrated almost exclusively on South Carolina- skipping both new Hampshire and Michigan.

Now Mike Huckabee is largely blowing off Florida.  Although he has campaigned meagerly around the state this past week, he spent a lot of time elsewhere at fundraisers and such.

For me, this style of concentrating only in contests where you know you will be successful is not the right approach for any of our presidential hopefuls to be taking; nor is it a strategy the GOP should be endorsing.

This pick and chose strategy of campaigning forebodes only bad things for the general election.  It has become clear that the United States is divided so sharply, and yet so indecisively, that every vote in every state will count.  Republicans cannot afford to relinquish states to their Democratic rivals like they have done in years past.  Rudy Giuliani makes a compelling point when he touts his ability to put "blue" states in play.  Hopping around from state to state- based on electability- is not the way to sharpen the vote-getting knives.

The winner of the Florida primary will certainly come out with a heavy advantage going into Super Tuesday just one week later.  Regardless of who wins, however, one thing is true: the candidates (or at least three of them) have made a valiant effort in the Sunshine state... with South Carolina all but a distant memory.

Gone... and forgotten

I've spent most of the day driving through South Carolina on the way to my friend's beach house- where I'm spending a few days during my week off of school.  In the three or so hours that I spent traveling down the state's stretch I-95 and various other back roads in route to the secluded getaway, I noticed an eery emptiness about the Palmetto state.  

Just last week I made a similar trip from Elon University to Columbia.  As I drove along the roads I noticed campaign signs for various candidates scattered hither, tither and yon.  The volume of signs was evenly matched- if not outnumbered- by the amount of attention the state received (from both the candidates and the media) because of the pending primary contests.

The attention is not surprising, nor is it unreasonable.  In past elections South Carolina has been a make or break state- with no GOP nominee having won their party's nomination without approval of South Carolinians.  I don't believe, however, that the same can be said this year.  Although John McCain certainly received a bump from his victory (and Mike Huckabee may have been dealt a deadly blow) it did not make him the party's poster child like a win would have in years past.  I find this particularly interesting and, as a Romney supporter, encouraging.  In fact, I believe we have Mitt Romney to thank for this year's dull response to the Palmetto primary.  

Mr. Romney is re-defining the way the Republican party chooses its candidate.  Instead of choosing based on the superficial momentum a candidate gains based on the vote of a handful of Iowans and frost-bitten folks in New Hampshire, Mitt's strategy has forced the party to choose its candidate based on substance (and convention delegates).  This strategy, partnered with the six wide-eyed candidates, will set the tone for the eventual nominee's performance in November, too.

This year the candidates quickly packed up their things (and yard signs) in South Carolina and hopped on the next flight to Florida.  Tomorrow's contest should prove to be interesting- with Romney looking to find the lead, McCain looking to keep the lead and Giuliani just looking for a miracle (that will give him the lead).

Regardless of who goes on to win Florida, they are all long gone from South Carolina- a state that is all but forgotten from their minds (unless you're John McCain).

Dear South Carolina

Thank you.  

Over the past week you have brought out the true colors of the Democratic party.  Without you, the world would still be left thinking that Barack Obama just wants to hope, Hillary Clinton just wants to better America (as she chokes up with emotion conveniently a few days before the New Hampshire primary) and John Edwards just wants to help poor people.

Alright... John Edwards does just wants to help poor people, but the other two have began to shed their campaign messages of hope and happiness and have started to go at one another.  Of course, as a Republican I couldn't be happier.

The real culprit behind all of this is Hillary Clinton (or maybe her husband- I can't remember who's running).  Faced with an almost certain loss in South Carolina, the team devised a strategy to polarize the state's electorate to the point where nobody could expect a win from anyone but Obama, who gains a favorable advantage from being Black.  Their strategy for losing South Carolina is kind of like Mitt Romney's- only less laid back and meaner.  Rather than just accept a loss, they've created a reason for it.  "We're not Black," they're chiming.  Even as Bill walks the streets of Black neighborhoods, he knows that the stunt is a futile effort at coming off as gaining favor within the Palmetto state's Black community.

I was at Zion Baptist Church- one of the state's oldest Black Churches- in Columbia, South Carolina for the NAACP's MLK Gospel Service last Sunday covering the election.  A planned appearance by John Edwards is actually what brought me to the church.  As I walked around the pews looking for someone who would let me interview them, I asked one lady if she was an Edwards supporter.  "I used to be," she said, "because he was for helping the poor.  But then Barack Obama started doing well and I just have no choice but to vote for him."

Everyone who has a shred of a clue knows that Barack will carry the heavily minority state.  Bill and Hillary have just decided to exemplify that fact.

No matter, though.  Please continue ripping your party apart on the lines of who-supports-who while the Republicans quietly duke it out in Florida and then go onto Super Tuesday.  Maybe by the summer whoever gets the nomination will have alienated one portion of the party so badly that a Republican victory is but assured (even if, by a freak accident, Ron Paul were to get the nomination).