Raining on the GOP Parade

Well, it looks like this week may not work out how I- or any other Republican- expected. As I was landing here in Minneapolis Saturday, Republican organizers were rushing to re-arrange the year of planning that they had worked so hard on.

As I walked around last night, questions about what this week would actually amount to swirled all around. Make no mistake, Republicans are here and are ready to have a good time. But we all recognize that some things are more important than partying and politics. In between meetings and events, all of the delegates are stealing looks at Fox News to see what devastation Gustav has brought so far.

It will be interesting to see what the party decides to do for the rest of the week. Walking out of the opening reception last night, I asked a party official what the schedule looked like for the rest of the week: "we'll play it by hear," he said. That seems to be the new theme of the week, and it sure reinforces the old theme of "County First".

A tell tale sign

I opened my e-mail today and found a message from the Huckabee campaign.  The friendly folks at his campaign take time out of their busy schedule each day to let me (and hundreds of others) know where the governor will be the following day.  The contents of today's e-mail was telling.

The governor makes an early campaign stop at a polling place at 7:30 to kick off his day, followed by a second visit to a polling place again at 8:30.  Both of these visits are in Tampa, Florida.

But by 12:00 tomorrow Mr. Huckabee will be in Jefferson City, Missouri for a press conference announcing new endorsements.

He'll be back in Florida for the primary results, right?  No.  And for good reason: he's currently polling in forth in the Sunshine state.

2008 has been an interesting year for primary politics.  It is, apparently, acceptable for candidates who are clearly not going to be successful in a state to just skip it altogether.  That would explain why Rudy Giuliani skipped Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina.  That is also why Mitt Romney skipped town on South Carolina, John McCain put all of his eggs into New Hampshire's basket and why Fred Thompson concentrated almost exclusively on South Carolina- skipping both new Hampshire and Michigan.

Now Mike Huckabee is largely blowing off Florida.  Although he has campaigned meagerly around the state this past week, he spent a lot of time elsewhere at fundraisers and such.

For me, this style of concentrating only in contests where you know you will be successful is not the right approach for any of our presidential hopefuls to be taking; nor is it a strategy the GOP should be endorsing.

This pick and chose strategy of campaigning forebodes only bad things for the general election.  It has become clear that the United States is divided so sharply, and yet so indecisively, that every vote in every state will count.  Republicans cannot afford to relinquish states to their Democratic rivals like they have done in years past.  Rudy Giuliani makes a compelling point when he touts his ability to put "blue" states in play.  Hopping around from state to state- based on electability- is not the way to sharpen the vote-getting knives.

The winner of the Florida primary will certainly come out with a heavy advantage going into Super Tuesday just one week later.  Regardless of who wins, however, one thing is true: the candidates (or at least three of them) have made a valiant effort in the Sunshine state... with South Carolina all but a distant memory.

Dear South Carolina

Thank you.  

Over the past week you have brought out the true colors of the Democratic party.  Without you, the world would still be left thinking that Barack Obama just wants to hope, Hillary Clinton just wants to better America (as she chokes up with emotion conveniently a few days before the New Hampshire primary) and John Edwards just wants to help poor people.

Alright... John Edwards does just wants to help poor people, but the other two have began to shed their campaign messages of hope and happiness and have started to go at one another.  Of course, as a Republican I couldn't be happier.

The real culprit behind all of this is Hillary Clinton (or maybe her husband- I can't remember who's running).  Faced with an almost certain loss in South Carolina, the team devised a strategy to polarize the state's electorate to the point where nobody could expect a win from anyone but Obama, who gains a favorable advantage from being Black.  Their strategy for losing South Carolina is kind of like Mitt Romney's- only less laid back and meaner.  Rather than just accept a loss, they've created a reason for it.  "We're not Black," they're chiming.  Even as Bill walks the streets of Black neighborhoods, he knows that the stunt is a futile effort at coming off as gaining favor within the Palmetto state's Black community.

I was at Zion Baptist Church- one of the state's oldest Black Churches- in Columbia, South Carolina for the NAACP's MLK Gospel Service last Sunday covering the election.  A planned appearance by John Edwards is actually what brought me to the church.  As I walked around the pews looking for someone who would let me interview them, I asked one lady if she was an Edwards supporter.  "I used to be," she said, "because he was for helping the poor.  But then Barack Obama started doing well and I just have no choice but to vote for him."

Everyone who has a shred of a clue knows that Barack will carry the heavily minority state.  Bill and Hillary have just decided to exemplify that fact.

No matter, though.  Please continue ripping your party apart on the lines of who-supports-who while the Republicans quietly duke it out in Florida and then go onto Super Tuesday.  Maybe by the summer whoever gets the nomination will have alienated one portion of the party so badly that a Republican victory is but assured (even if, by a freak accident, Ron Paul were to get the nomination).