This year's real constituency

Last night I was visiting with a friend at a retirement home in my hometown of Fayetteville.  This lady is absolutely wonderful and I enjoy having discussions with her (our discussion last night went on for nearly two and a half hours!).  For the first time since I've had the pleasure of knowing her our conversation turned to politics.

"I don't even care who about I'm going to vote for yet," she said.  "They all sound the same to me."

Although I may not agree with her, many Americans do and I certainly understand her point.  To the average citizen, who doesn't spend their day on realclearpolitics.com or at least peruse Carl Cameron's vlog on the Fox News website once in a while, this election may seem to have become stagnant.  As each side narrows their fields down to two clear front runners (sorry Ron and Mike), the race becomes less of an adventure and more of a battle where two candidates fight to see who can repeat the same rhetoric more often.  On the Democratic side we even have the two candidates fawning over each other as though they're long lost relatives.

While that certainly cannot be said for the GOP race, we certainly beginning to see the same old lines over and over again.  Yes, John, we know you think Mitt "wants to withdraw our troops from Iraq."  We also know that you're a veteran and that you think such a status entitles you to never be questioned on any part of your record ever.  And you, Mr. Romney.  We realize that you can "bring together the conservative coalition."  Yes- we got that you spent a lifetime working in "the real economy" (isn't that a clever phrase?) and we know you have a picture perfect family.

Even the messages of change are beginning to grow stagnant.  Although Obama may have laid claim to it first, it was quickly snatched up by Huckabee, Clinton (of course someone who IS washington can change it) and, most recently, Romney (I tend to put my trust in the latter).

Before candidates can begin to fight for voters in November, they're going to have to get their attention.

Rudy: not gone for long

It is only natural to assume that dropping out of the presidential race means an end to campaigning.  John Edwards has said goodbye to the stump (at least for now) and I'm sure Fred Thompson is happily back at home or visiting with his mother.  But the campaign trail still saw Rudy Giuliani today, despite his calling it quits yesterday.

I find it quite interesting that at a press conference held by John McCain to announce the endorsement of Arnold Schwarzenegger the Governator was flanked by the candidate on one side and Rudy on the other.  It seems that in jumping ship from his own campaign, Hizzoner has simply jumped on another.  This shouldn't really come as a surprise, however, since Giuliani had said previously that if he weren't running for president he'd be out campaigning for Mr. McCain.

All of this leads me to believe that there is a great prize waiting for Rudy at the end of the tunnel.  Vice President?  Attorney General?  Both of these, I believe, are possible spots.  Although mainstream though pegs Mike Huckabee into the VP spot, I believe that John and Rudy may be closer than the former.

At the end of the day Rudy Giuliani won't get the chance to became the nation's 44th president, but he sure is sticking around to help someone who might.

John McCain's greatest enemy...

is himself.  That's my take following tonight's debate at the Reagan Library.

There is no question that McCain is certainly the candidate to beat following his win in Florida (as much as it pains me to say it).  And tonight his attitude was certainly that of the cocky high school quarterback asking out the captain of the cheerleading team.  Of course, who could blame him: three major primary victories, the endorsement of Rudy Giuliani, the expected endorsement of Arnold Schwarzenegger and his long-standing lead in the national polls.  At the same time, the maverick isn't in the clear yet.  As I mentioned in a previous post, the competition between he and Mitt Romney is still close enough for an upset finish on Tuesday... an overly confident Senator from Arizona would only play to Mitt's advantage.

In addition to his cocky demeanor, McCain has also taken to outright lying about Romney's record on the war in Iraq.  If he wasn't criticizing the Governor from Massachusetts for his alleged support of a troop withdrawal, he was criticizing him for his negative attacks.  Oh the irony.  So much for straight talk, huh?

While we're on the subject of the debate, allow me to point out that Mike Huckabee has already taken his spot as the third wheel.  During tonight's debate he reminded Anderson Cooper several times that there was a third person in the race (unfortunately, there is a fourth too... poor Ron Paul).  Has Mr. Edwards already taken my advice and called Mr. Huckabee's campaign?

Every political commentator in the country said that Mr. Romney would have to pull some pretty big punches in order to come off as successful in tonight's debate.  While I'm not quite sure Mitt lived up to his end of the deal, Mr. McCain did the dirty work for him.

Goodbye John

Well, it was bound to happen sooner or later.  Finally, this morning, John Edwards withdrew from the presidential race.

I'm not sure I really blame him for staying in as long as he did.  In fact, I half expected him to stay in longer and use his delegates to broker a deal in his favor at the convention late this summer.  But after hearing the news of a spot already being reserved for him in the Obama administration as Attorney General I guess staying in the race isn't really necessary after all.  Whether he was staying in the race to gain power at the convention or not, I believe that he served a purpose.

After the debate sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus Institute in Myrtle Beach last week I had a chance to do a one-on-one interview with Edwards's senior advisor Joe Trippi.  Not surprisingly, his overall message seemed to echo what his candidate tried to remind everyone of throughout that night's debate: that there were three people left in the race- and the third person wasn't staying in just for the fun of it. 

I feel as though John Edwards hung around as long as he could to be a constant reminder that the presidential race wasn't about race or gender or slum lords or executive boards but, rather, about substantive issues.  Whether you agree with Mr. Edwards or not (I, of course, do not) you have to applaud him for not being so willing to lay down for the Clinton-Obama steamroller that seems to have run over this year's presidential race.

His departure, however, was certainly inevitable.  Now, lets hope that his people call Ron Paul's people and maybe even manage to convince Mike Huckabee's people that their campaign is become more and more of an exercise in futility too.

What Florida means... to me

Well, I can't say that John McCain's win tonight surprised me.  It certainly did disappoint me.  That sentiment, I'm sure, is shared by a great deal of the GOP.

Unfortunately, tonight's result will probably give the media enough reason to anoint John McCain the Republican pick for president.  Despite that fact, I'm not sure the Republican party will be ready to get behind "Comeback Mac".  Tonight's results only support this fact.

Mitt Romney got second place only about four percentage points behind his rival.  This tells me two things.  That a great deal of Republicans in Florida are split between the two candidates and that John McCain is unable to garner a solid majority of supporters anywhere throughout the country.

Had Mr. McCain's narrow victory been a first in this series of state contests it may have been excusable.  But instead this is his second straight close finish.  What would have happened if Fred Thompson had not been in South Carolina to splinter Mike Huckabee's control of the evangelical vote?  How would Florida's primary turned out if Rudy Giuliani had not spent months in the state- arguably drawing a fair number of voters away from Mitt Romney?

There is no doubt that John McCain is in a good position to do well on Super Tuesday.  If a significant amount of voters throw their support behind him a week from now, then we may be in a position to declare him the front runner.  But tonight all we have is another close election.  In its aftermath lie two factions of the Republican party feuding over the harsh words that have been exchanged in the past week.  John McCain's tough attacks and familiar campaign rhetoric only succeeded in alienating the very people he desperately needs to gain the approval of: actual conservatives.

Was Florida the end all be all that it was predicted to be just this morning?  I say not quite.  Had Mr. McCain's victory come by a margin just slightly larger, or if Mr. Romney had pulled off a victory this evening (he began campaigning here last week as the underdog) one may say otherwise.

Now, until next week, it's just wait and see.

Dear Florida

Today your residents go to the polls.  Well, actually, some of your residents have already been.  About half a million Floridian have already cast their ballot in early and absentee voting.  Either way, the decision you make today will certainly determine the course of the remainder of the 2008 primary.

The effects of your vote today will not only affect the GOP, either.  Despite Florida Democrats having had their delegates stripped away from them this year- as a penalty for moving their primary up- party faithful are still casting their ballots (also in record early voting numbers).  Accordingly, the Sunshine state will provide a glimpse at the candidates' ability without the rallies, commercials, push polls and bad talking.

Will Rudy Giuliani finally finish in the top three of a primary contest?  Can John McCain win a contest where only Republicans are able to vote?  Is Mitt Romney able to win in a state where he doesn't have any major underlying advantage (like virtually no opposition in Wyoming or Nevada and home-field advantage in Michigan)?

Today's contest will, indeed, be telling.  Check back later tonight for exactly what it told us.

Stuck in the past...

Is it 1960?  No, it must be 1980.  Of course not! Apparently it's 2008.

Not that you- or anyone else who has been paying attention to presidential primary race- would know.

I was listening to sound bites of Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Barack Obama today on Rush Limabaugh's radio show.  After listening to the clips I realized that the Republicans aren't the only ones who are running on a platform of their forefathers.  While the GOP field is clinging tightly to Ronald Reagan, it seems that the Democrats are hanging ever so steadfastly onto John F. Kennedy.

Neither of these men are bad choices for presidents that current candidates should cling to.  In fact, it is probably fair to make some comparisons between JFK's ability to bring together this country and Barack Obama's rally of mainstream America.  Mitt Romney may be doing a standup job of molding himself into the candidate that can unite the old three factions of the Conservative Coalition.  Both of the latter, though, are also running on a campaign of change (albeit one long before the other).

But change is not a theme that stops with Barack and Mitt.  Hillary Clinton is advocating for change.  Mike Huckabee says that hope can bring change to his White House.  John McCain wants to change the way the federal government doles out money.

Can any of these candidates actually deliver?  Is change actually on any agenda?  I don't believe so, not when that change is going to come through presidents who served decades ago.

If there is one message I wish the candidates to glean from this point (because I'm sure their senior staffers are glues to this blog), it is that their messages should synchronize.  Or, if all else fails, the Romney camp should realize that one can only say "I'm going to re-unite the Conservative Coaltion" so many times before America gets tired of hearing it.

A tell tale sign

I opened my e-mail today and found a message from the Huckabee campaign.  The friendly folks at his campaign take time out of their busy schedule each day to let me (and hundreds of others) know where the governor will be the following day.  The contents of today's e-mail was telling.

The governor makes an early campaign stop at a polling place at 7:30 to kick off his day, followed by a second visit to a polling place again at 8:30.  Both of these visits are in Tampa, Florida.

But by 12:00 tomorrow Mr. Huckabee will be in Jefferson City, Missouri for a press conference announcing new endorsements.

He'll be back in Florida for the primary results, right?  No.  And for good reason: he's currently polling in forth in the Sunshine state.

2008 has been an interesting year for primary politics.  It is, apparently, acceptable for candidates who are clearly not going to be successful in a state to just skip it altogether.  That would explain why Rudy Giuliani skipped Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina.  That is also why Mitt Romney skipped town on South Carolina, John McCain put all of his eggs into New Hampshire's basket and why Fred Thompson concentrated almost exclusively on South Carolina- skipping both new Hampshire and Michigan.

Now Mike Huckabee is largely blowing off Florida.  Although he has campaigned meagerly around the state this past week, he spent a lot of time elsewhere at fundraisers and such.

For me, this style of concentrating only in contests where you know you will be successful is not the right approach for any of our presidential hopefuls to be taking; nor is it a strategy the GOP should be endorsing.

This pick and chose strategy of campaigning forebodes only bad things for the general election.  It has become clear that the United States is divided so sharply, and yet so indecisively, that every vote in every state will count.  Republicans cannot afford to relinquish states to their Democratic rivals like they have done in years past.  Rudy Giuliani makes a compelling point when he touts his ability to put "blue" states in play.  Hopping around from state to state- based on electability- is not the way to sharpen the vote-getting knives.

The winner of the Florida primary will certainly come out with a heavy advantage going into Super Tuesday just one week later.  Regardless of who wins, however, one thing is true: the candidates (or at least three of them) have made a valiant effort in the Sunshine state... with South Carolina all but a distant memory.

Gone... and forgotten

I've spent most of the day driving through South Carolina on the way to my friend's beach house- where I'm spending a few days during my week off of school.  In the three or so hours that I spent traveling down the state's stretch I-95 and various other back roads in route to the secluded getaway, I noticed an eery emptiness about the Palmetto state.  

Just last week I made a similar trip from Elon University to Columbia.  As I drove along the roads I noticed campaign signs for various candidates scattered hither, tither and yon.  The volume of signs was evenly matched- if not outnumbered- by the amount of attention the state received (from both the candidates and the media) because of the pending primary contests.

The attention is not surprising, nor is it unreasonable.  In past elections South Carolina has been a make or break state- with no GOP nominee having won their party's nomination without approval of South Carolinians.  I don't believe, however, that the same can be said this year.  Although John McCain certainly received a bump from his victory (and Mike Huckabee may have been dealt a deadly blow) it did not make him the party's poster child like a win would have in years past.  I find this particularly interesting and, as a Romney supporter, encouraging.  In fact, I believe we have Mitt Romney to thank for this year's dull response to the Palmetto primary.  

Mr. Romney is re-defining the way the Republican party chooses its candidate.  Instead of choosing based on the superficial momentum a candidate gains based on the vote of a handful of Iowans and frost-bitten folks in New Hampshire, Mitt's strategy has forced the party to choose its candidate based on substance (and convention delegates).  This strategy, partnered with the six wide-eyed candidates, will set the tone for the eventual nominee's performance in November, too.

This year the candidates quickly packed up their things (and yard signs) in South Carolina and hopped on the next flight to Florida.  Tomorrow's contest should prove to be interesting- with Romney looking to find the lead, McCain looking to keep the lead and Giuliani just looking for a miracle (that will give him the lead).

Regardless of who goes on to win Florida, they are all long gone from South Carolina- a state that is all but forgotten from their minds (unless you're John McCain).