Tuesday, January 29, 2008

What Florida means... to me

Well, I can't say that John McCain's win tonight surprised me.  It certainly did disappoint me.  That sentiment, I'm sure, is shared by a great deal of the GOP.

Unfortunately, tonight's result will probably give the media enough reason to anoint John McCain the Republican pick for president.  Despite that fact, I'm not sure the Republican party will be ready to get behind "Comeback Mac".  Tonight's results only support this fact.

Mitt Romney got second place only about four percentage points behind his rival.  This tells me two things.  That a great deal of Republicans in Florida are split between the two candidates and that John McCain is unable to garner a solid majority of supporters anywhere throughout the country.

Had Mr. McCain's narrow victory been a first in this series of state contests it may have been excusable.  But instead this is his second straight close finish.  What would have happened if Fred Thompson had not been in South Carolina to splinter Mike Huckabee's control of the evangelical vote?  How would Florida's primary turned out if Rudy Giuliani had not spent months in the state- arguably drawing a fair number of voters away from Mitt Romney?

There is no doubt that John McCain is in a good position to do well on Super Tuesday.  If a significant amount of voters throw their support behind him a week from now, then we may be in a position to declare him the front runner.  But tonight all we have is another close election.  In its aftermath lie two factions of the Republican party feuding over the harsh words that have been exchanged in the past week.  John McCain's tough attacks and familiar campaign rhetoric only succeeded in alienating the very people he desperately needs to gain the approval of: actual conservatives.

Was Florida the end all be all that it was predicted to be just this morning?  I say not quite.  Had Mr. McCain's victory come by a margin just slightly larger, or if Mr. Romney had pulled off a victory this evening (he began campaigning here last week as the underdog) one may say otherwise.

Now, until next week, it's just wait and see.

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