What Florida means... to me

Well, I can't say that John McCain's win tonight surprised me.  It certainly did disappoint me.  That sentiment, I'm sure, is shared by a great deal of the GOP.

Unfortunately, tonight's result will probably give the media enough reason to anoint John McCain the Republican pick for president.  Despite that fact, I'm not sure the Republican party will be ready to get behind "Comeback Mac".  Tonight's results only support this fact.

Mitt Romney got second place only about four percentage points behind his rival.  This tells me two things.  That a great deal of Republicans in Florida are split between the two candidates and that John McCain is unable to garner a solid majority of supporters anywhere throughout the country.

Had Mr. McCain's narrow victory been a first in this series of state contests it may have been excusable.  But instead this is his second straight close finish.  What would have happened if Fred Thompson had not been in South Carolina to splinter Mike Huckabee's control of the evangelical vote?  How would Florida's primary turned out if Rudy Giuliani had not spent months in the state- arguably drawing a fair number of voters away from Mitt Romney?

There is no doubt that John McCain is in a good position to do well on Super Tuesday.  If a significant amount of voters throw their support behind him a week from now, then we may be in a position to declare him the front runner.  But tonight all we have is another close election.  In its aftermath lie two factions of the Republican party feuding over the harsh words that have been exchanged in the past week.  John McCain's tough attacks and familiar campaign rhetoric only succeeded in alienating the very people he desperately needs to gain the approval of: actual conservatives.

Was Florida the end all be all that it was predicted to be just this morning?  I say not quite.  Had Mr. McCain's victory come by a margin just slightly larger, or if Mr. Romney had pulled off a victory this evening (he began campaigning here last week as the underdog) one may say otherwise.

Now, until next week, it's just wait and see.

Dear Florida

Today your residents go to the polls.  Well, actually, some of your residents have already been.  About half a million Floridian have already cast their ballot in early and absentee voting.  Either way, the decision you make today will certainly determine the course of the remainder of the 2008 primary.

The effects of your vote today will not only affect the GOP, either.  Despite Florida Democrats having had their delegates stripped away from them this year- as a penalty for moving their primary up- party faithful are still casting their ballots (also in record early voting numbers).  Accordingly, the Sunshine state will provide a glimpse at the candidates' ability without the rallies, commercials, push polls and bad talking.

Will Rudy Giuliani finally finish in the top three of a primary contest?  Can John McCain win a contest where only Republicans are able to vote?  Is Mitt Romney able to win in a state where he doesn't have any major underlying advantage (like virtually no opposition in Wyoming or Nevada and home-field advantage in Michigan)?

Today's contest will, indeed, be telling.  Check back later tonight for exactly what it told us.

Stuck in the past...

Is it 1960?  No, it must be 1980.  Of course not! Apparently it's 2008.

Not that you- or anyone else who has been paying attention to presidential primary race- would know.

I was listening to sound bites of Ted Kennedy's endorsement of Barack Obama today on Rush Limabaugh's radio show.  After listening to the clips I realized that the Republicans aren't the only ones who are running on a platform of their forefathers.  While the GOP field is clinging tightly to Ronald Reagan, it seems that the Democrats are hanging ever so steadfastly onto John F. Kennedy.

Neither of these men are bad choices for presidents that current candidates should cling to.  In fact, it is probably fair to make some comparisons between JFK's ability to bring together this country and Barack Obama's rally of mainstream America.  Mitt Romney may be doing a standup job of molding himself into the candidate that can unite the old three factions of the Conservative Coalition.  Both of the latter, though, are also running on a campaign of change (albeit one long before the other).

But change is not a theme that stops with Barack and Mitt.  Hillary Clinton is advocating for change.  Mike Huckabee says that hope can bring change to his White House.  John McCain wants to change the way the federal government doles out money.

Can any of these candidates actually deliver?  Is change actually on any agenda?  I don't believe so, not when that change is going to come through presidents who served decades ago.

If there is one message I wish the candidates to glean from this point (because I'm sure their senior staffers are glues to this blog), it is that their messages should synchronize.  Or, if all else fails, the Romney camp should realize that one can only say "I'm going to re-unite the Conservative Coaltion" so many times before America gets tired of hearing it.

A tell tale sign

I opened my e-mail today and found a message from the Huckabee campaign.  The friendly folks at his campaign take time out of their busy schedule each day to let me (and hundreds of others) know where the governor will be the following day.  The contents of today's e-mail was telling.

The governor makes an early campaign stop at a polling place at 7:30 to kick off his day, followed by a second visit to a polling place again at 8:30.  Both of these visits are in Tampa, Florida.

But by 12:00 tomorrow Mr. Huckabee will be in Jefferson City, Missouri for a press conference announcing new endorsements.

He'll be back in Florida for the primary results, right?  No.  And for good reason: he's currently polling in forth in the Sunshine state.

2008 has been an interesting year for primary politics.  It is, apparently, acceptable for candidates who are clearly not going to be successful in a state to just skip it altogether.  That would explain why Rudy Giuliani skipped Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina.  That is also why Mitt Romney skipped town on South Carolina, John McCain put all of his eggs into New Hampshire's basket and why Fred Thompson concentrated almost exclusively on South Carolina- skipping both new Hampshire and Michigan.

Now Mike Huckabee is largely blowing off Florida.  Although he has campaigned meagerly around the state this past week, he spent a lot of time elsewhere at fundraisers and such.

For me, this style of concentrating only in contests where you know you will be successful is not the right approach for any of our presidential hopefuls to be taking; nor is it a strategy the GOP should be endorsing.

This pick and chose strategy of campaigning forebodes only bad things for the general election.  It has become clear that the United States is divided so sharply, and yet so indecisively, that every vote in every state will count.  Republicans cannot afford to relinquish states to their Democratic rivals like they have done in years past.  Rudy Giuliani makes a compelling point when he touts his ability to put "blue" states in play.  Hopping around from state to state- based on electability- is not the way to sharpen the vote-getting knives.

The winner of the Florida primary will certainly come out with a heavy advantage going into Super Tuesday just one week later.  Regardless of who wins, however, one thing is true: the candidates (or at least three of them) have made a valiant effort in the Sunshine state... with South Carolina all but a distant memory.

Gone... and forgotten

I've spent most of the day driving through South Carolina on the way to my friend's beach house- where I'm spending a few days during my week off of school.  In the three or so hours that I spent traveling down the state's stretch I-95 and various other back roads in route to the secluded getaway, I noticed an eery emptiness about the Palmetto state.  

Just last week I made a similar trip from Elon University to Columbia.  As I drove along the roads I noticed campaign signs for various candidates scattered hither, tither and yon.  The volume of signs was evenly matched- if not outnumbered- by the amount of attention the state received (from both the candidates and the media) because of the pending primary contests.

The attention is not surprising, nor is it unreasonable.  In past elections South Carolina has been a make or break state- with no GOP nominee having won their party's nomination without approval of South Carolinians.  I don't believe, however, that the same can be said this year.  Although John McCain certainly received a bump from his victory (and Mike Huckabee may have been dealt a deadly blow) it did not make him the party's poster child like a win would have in years past.  I find this particularly interesting and, as a Romney supporter, encouraging.  In fact, I believe we have Mitt Romney to thank for this year's dull response to the Palmetto primary.  

Mr. Romney is re-defining the way the Republican party chooses its candidate.  Instead of choosing based on the superficial momentum a candidate gains based on the vote of a handful of Iowans and frost-bitten folks in New Hampshire, Mitt's strategy has forced the party to choose its candidate based on substance (and convention delegates).  This strategy, partnered with the six wide-eyed candidates, will set the tone for the eventual nominee's performance in November, too.

This year the candidates quickly packed up their things (and yard signs) in South Carolina and hopped on the next flight to Florida.  Tomorrow's contest should prove to be interesting- with Romney looking to find the lead, McCain looking to keep the lead and Giuliani just looking for a miracle (that will give him the lead).

Regardless of who goes on to win Florida, they are all long gone from South Carolina- a state that is all but forgotten from their minds (unless you're John McCain).